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Rodez welcome Troyes for this Ligue 2 round 18 clash at Stade Paul-Lignon in Rodez early Saturday morning Beijing time. This league is of high level by European standards – for a second tier I mean. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of somewhat mediocre quality by this league's standards. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity! We have won five consecutive picks! I will post more high-quality expert analyses later today. Yes, Troyes are a relatively big club in terms of overall financial resources, players' estimated total market value, fan-base as well as success in the past – by the Ligue 2 standards. However, their season has been a somewhat big disappointment.. There have been various kinds of rumours circulating about problems within and around the team/club.. Last season, the first one being relegated from the Ligue 1, was a massively disappointing one. Indeed, they finished in 17th place in this league with (at the time) a total of 20 clubs. They took only a lame 41 points. Rodez, on the other hand, performed very well, taking 4th place with a fine 60 points in their pocket! They scored a total of 62 goals – the second-highest goal in the Ligue 2. Troyes have been somewhat lame this season as well and are currently in 12th place. They have grabbed 21 points to their account and do have some potential for improvement.. However, the bookmakers – for some reason - seem to give this potential way too much emphasis.. Troyes have scored only 18 goals but have also conceded 19 goals. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is bigger - 22.03.
Rodez have taken 20 points and are in 14 th place. They have, in all honesty, not quite met my expectations performance-wise. However, they have had some luck on their side in terms of xPTS, to some extent xG and more clearly xGA. Indeed, their number of xGA per game is only 1.32. Rodez have potential for substantial improvement in all areas of the game! They have no obvious weaknesses - or strengths in their game but can sometimes be vulnerable to intense, well-organized pressing. However, Troyes are not expected to play this way here... With the expected lineups, taking the substantial home advantage Troyes deserve to be bigger favourites than the bookmakers think – offering odds of as high as around 2.30 on the home win! Troyes have lost five of their nine away games in this league this season.
Yes, Troyes have unarguably improved from early season, winning three of their last four games – and losing just once last December. However, they have, as a result, have become way too "hot" on the betting market.. They have had some luck on their side in quite a few victorious games. In their most recent game they defeated Amiens 3-0 on the road as favourites on the betting market. However, I want to emphasize that the final score is hugely misleading. Indeed, they had 56% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts and shots off goal. Troyes had one more shot on target though. The xG numbers were 0.93-0.94. Before this Troyes beat Metz 3-0 at home in the French Cup. However, the visitors had a very high 72% ball possession. Troyes had one more shot on goal – Metz, on the other hand, recorded one more shot off goal. Yes, Troyes did play well, clearly above their normal level but the final score is still very misleading! Before this Troyes defeated Martigues, a small, newly promoted team, 4-0 at home as big favourites according to the bookies, of course.. I want to highlight that Martigues, with 12 points to their account, are clearly the worst team in this league and have a terrible score difference of 10:34. In round 15 of the Ligue 2 Troyes lost to Lorient 0-2 on the road. They were outplayed by the hosts for the most of the 90 minutes - recording just one shot on goal. In round 14 Troyes faced Grenoble at home, priced around 2.15 to win by the bookmakers but no goals were scored. The Troyes offense was, as a whole, a clear disappointment in my expert opinion.. Indeed, the visitors, however, recorded many more shots on goal – 5-2 to be precise.
Rodez have won three of their last games in front of their enthusiastic fans. Furthermore, they have taken one win in their last three matches. In their last game they were unlucky – losing 0-2 to Red Star at home. They recorded more goal attempts and shots on target. The xG numbers were 1.55-1.54. Before this they faced Clermont at Stade Gabriel Montpied and took a point through a 1-1 draw – despite not being even close to their best. Clermont recorded one more shot on goal. In round 15 Rodez were strong – especially defensively. They beat Pau FC 1-0 at home – after recording a fine 21 goal attempts. They also had many more shots on goal, shots off goal and corner kicks – 12-4. Lastly I want to mention that Rodez have defeated Troyes in the last three games between these two teams. They scored an impressive eight goals in these three matches! The teams last locked horns in September 2024 and Rodez took a great 3-0 away win. They were underdogs int his game - which was clearly a mistake. The bookies should really stop underestimating Rodez! They recorded many more goal attempts, shots on target (5-2) as well as shots on goal!
GOOD LUCK and thanks to all my thousands of loyal fans - and welcome all new fans!